| Global Economics
- Viewpoints |
The Economic
Policy Institute, a nonprofit Washington D.C. think tank,
was created in 1986 to broaden the discussion about economic
policy to include the interests of low- and middle-income
workers. Today, with global competition expanding, wage
inequality rising, and the methods and nature of work changing
in fundamental ways, it is as crucial as ever that people who
work for a living have a voice in the economic discourse.
Morgan Stanley's Global Economic Forum and Strategy Bulletin:
Dec 18, 2009
Global:
2010 Outlook: From Exit to Exit
Global:
Global Forecast Update: 2010 Outlook: From Exit to Exit
Global:
Exit Strategies for the Global Central Bank
United States:
The Fed Will Exit in 2010
Euroland:
An Economy in Transition
EMEA:
CEEMEA: Rebounding, Still Far from Tightening
Japan:
Loose Money and a Turn Towards Fiscal Discipline
Canada:
Forecasting an Acceleration
China:
A Goldilocks Scenario in 2010
Asia Pacific:
Domestic Demand - Cyclical Story Intact
India:
Growth Recovery Gathering Pace
ASEAN:
Prefer Domestic Demand Plays in a Slow and Steady World
Latin America:
Latin America: Abundance Forgives All
Mexico:
Hike Another Day
>>>
Archive
MFS Global Perspectives:
October 2009
Wells Fargo
Advisors Market
Commentaries For
the Week of December 23, 2009:
|
World Markets - Technical
Analysis |
Bullish underpinnings remain in place.
Broad stock markets technicals favour
higher
levels
Economic considerations continue to
see-saw from recovery to weakness on a daily basis. This
information coupled with many market watchers
persistently predicting a retesting of the March lows
has created an environment of confusion for many
investors. The daily ping-pong of positive and negative
data has driven numerous investors into a state of
inaction. However, broad market underpinnings remain
bullish and stress longer-term strength and not
weakness.
The
high bullish percentage of stocks on the NYSE Composite
that are trending up is a key example of internal
strength. Since July, over 80% of the equities on the
"Big Board" have traded above their long-term 200-day
moving average. This benchmark guide (200-day m/a)
remains a key determining tool for many money managers
worldwide to indicate if stocks are bullish or bearish.
Since mid-2009, levels have reached a high of 93% in
September and October and dipped to only 85%-86% in
November and December. The current reading remains very
favourable at 86.89% (Chart 1). This means that of the
over 2000 stocks listed on the NYSE, just 13% (less than
300) are trending downward.
Another
important consideration is the transfer of performance
from the safety of bonds to the more growth oriented
equity class. Longer-term advances in the stock market
requires a commitment from investors into growth and not
bonds. Money began to flow out of equities late in 2007
and swift to defensive fixed income. Bonds would out
performing stocks for the next 20 months. The process of
reversing started slowly in mid-2009 but only recently
have stocks proven the superiority over bonds (Chart 2).
This movement is a key component to all bull markets.
Consumer attitudes is another vital element that
analysts review. As consumers equal 2/3rds of the
economy, strength in the retail sector is another vital
underpinning to the overall stock market picture. The
S&P Retail Index (Chart 3) bottomed in late 2008 and
early 2009 after 18 months of declines. The downward
trend that began in mid-2007 was broken in July 2009.
Since that time, the consumer-driven index has displayed
steady growth with no indication of rolling over.
Current technicals suggest some potential for resistance
at the 400 to 425 range in the 1st quarter. The
longer-term target in 2010 is a bullish 500.
Bottom line: Many internal market dynamics stress an
underpinning of bullish strength. The continuous high
levels of upward trending stocks on NYSE indicates a
favourable long-term attitude with most institutional
investors. The transfer of funds from bonds to stocks is
another important milestone in the unfolding of a
fledgling bull market. The bullish trend of retail
equities, since mid-2009, adds additional support to
improving market conditions in 2010.
Investment approach: Models suggest equity markets
should continue their present consolidation pattern into
Q1. This pause in the longer-term upward movement of
indexes is consistent with many past bull markets. This
flat trading allows the fundamentals to catch-up with
the technicals. Investors may wish to buy on weakness or
wait for he anticipated low in January or February
before adding new positions.
More research is available in the December newsletter.
Go to www.technicalspeculator.com and click on member
login.
Your comments are always welcomed.
Archive |
|
Economic Analysis & Commentary |
|
THE KWR INTERNATIONAL ADVISOR
|
| Reading |
-
IMF:
Reshaping the Global Economy
The economic and financial crisis marks the end (for
now) of a rapid expansion of globalization (March 2009)
-
Economics A-Z: Pareto efficiency? Phillips
Curve? Inflation? Deflation? Stagnation?
Look up
economic terms in this handy online resource, provided
by The Economist
|
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| News & Commentaries |
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Commodities
FTSE 100 ·
CAC 40 ·
Dax
·
MIBTEL
· IBEX
35 Index ·
Dow Jones STOXX
>
More European Indices
- Asian
Development Bank: ADB is an international
development finance institution whose mission is to help
its developing member countries reduce poverty and
improve the quality of life of their people.
-
The
China Perspective provides business-related
information with daily updates of major trends and
developments in the burgeoning Chinese economy, as well
as a weekly summary of the most pertinent issues in the
foreign press. $$$
- The
JapanInvestor
is dedicated to investors in Japanese stocks,
bonds and the yen. TJI provides a weekly strategic
analysis of Japanese stocks and financial markets,
providing you with views you can profitably use to
invest in Japan.
- Asian
Business Watch - A comprehensive source for
investment and economic information on Asia and Japan.
- Financial Times: Daily Update
-
CNNfn News: Asian Markets
- Macquarie Research: This Week in Asia
(pdf)
- StocksAbroad.com
- Resources for Investing in Asia and Latin America
Stocks
- ValueNotes.com
- A complete directory and search engine for Indian
equity research, business, financial and stock market
information
- India:
Outlookindia.com
and
outlookmoney.com
-
Mizuho Securities
- Research and Links to English language resources on
the Japanese economy, finance, politics and law
- The Edge
is
Malaysia's best selling and highly regarded
publication on business & investment.
-
Center for Asia
Investment Intelligence
- Economic and Financial Analysis with focus on
Japan and Korea
- Australian
Stock Exchange data and information: Live Data
from the Australian Stock Exchange. ASX data, End of
day. Live, Dynamic. Australian economic news. Financial
& company news. Charts.
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Sharetradingeducation: Home of
the Investing Online Newsletter & practical risk
management and tools. Download FREE TRIAL ISSUE and free
sample of Atkinson-Guppy Articles ebook of articles from
Daryl Guppy's newsletter, Atkinson portfolio tools &
Home Study courses on the work of Jim Berg, Daryl Guppy,
Alan Hull and Simon Sherwood.
All Ordinaries ·
Shanghai
Composite ·
Hang
Seng ·
BSE 30
·
Jakarta
Composite ·
KLSE
Composite ·
Nikkei 225 ·
NZSE
50 ·
Straits Times ·
Seoul
Composite ·
Taiwan Weighted ·
Headlines for these Markets
-
North American Stock Indices
-
Latin American Stock Indices
- InfoMoney focuses on providing
financial information about the Brazilian market.
News, stock quotes, technical and fundamental analysis
and interactive tools. (Portugese)
- Financial Times: Daily Update U.S.
Markets
- Financial
Chat
is home to the Internet's most sophisticated and
active real-time trading chatrooms. In our forums, we
have some of the world's finest traders with us daily,
willing to share information in real time, as well as
educate and assist you in your trading. Real traders
trading US and foreign markets, posting real-time
trades, and giving real-time market commentary.
- StocksAbroad.com
- Resources for Investing in Asia and Latin America
Stocks
MerVal
Argentina ·
Bovespa Brazil
·
S&P TSX
Composite ·
IPSA
Chile · IPC
Mexico · S&P
500 ·
DJIA
·
NASDAQ
·
Headlines for these Markets ·
·
Emerging Markets
Currencies
Major Currency Cross Rates
JPY
to USD
· EURO to USD ·
CAN $ to
USD ·
U.K. £
to USD ·
AU $ to
USD ·
CHF to
USD >
Currency Headlines |
Economies |
|
NEW: OECD Factbook 2009:
The online gateway to OECD Factbook PDFs,
Excel™ and interactive graphs. Access to the key
indicators for the World’s leading economies is only a
click away. To access all the contents free online,
click
here.
OECD Economic Outlook No. 85,
June 2009
-
-
-
Flashfile: summary of projections by country
(XLS)
-
-
OECD Documentation: Statistics, Data and Indicators
Extensive economic statistics, data, and indicators from
member and non-member countries.
-
Economic Outlook for OECD countries: an interim
assessment (pdf, 588Kb,
English)
-
IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) --
Crisis and Recovery - April 2009
-
January 2009: IMF
World Economic Outlook:
Global Economic Slump Challenges Policies
-
IMF Economic Outlooks and IMF
Country Reports by Date
- Commerzbank Research:
Industrial Countries
-
Global Business Cycle Indicators
- The Conference Board publishes leading,
coincident, and lagging indexes designed to signal peaks
and troughs in the business cycle for nine countries
around the world
-
Regional Economic Outlook - Europe: Securing
Recovery
Date: October 2009
Europe's contraction is ending, but the recovery is
fragile. Policymakers should look beyond the crisis to
secure a durable upswing and address the threats to
potential growth from the crisis and the continent's
well-known structural rigidities. The report's
analytical work stresses the uncertainty surrounding
potential growth estimates, and the more volatile
environment faced by emerging economies in a tightly
integrated region. In the near term, this calls for
measures to restore the financial sector to health and
for continued macroeconomic support, while preparing for
the exit from extraordinary interventions in a
coordinated and transparent fashion. Higher longer-term
growth through structural change will support the
recovery, smooth the exit, and help emerging markets to
adjust to lower capital inflows in the crisis'
aftermath. Published biannually in May and October.
-
Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific
Date: October 2009
Asia has rebounded fast from the depth of the global
crisis. Initially, the region was hit extremely hard,
with output in most countries shrinking by much more
than even those nations at the epicenter of the crisis.
But starting in February 2009, Asia's economy began to
revive. Exports and industrial production have increased
again, financial pressures have eased, confidence has
largely been restored. What explains this remarkable
comeback? What challenges does the recovery pose to
Asian policymakers? These are the main questions
addressed in the IMF's October 2009 "Regional Economic
Outlook: Asia and Pacific." The report discusses the
latest developments in Asia, examines the prospects for
the period ahead, and considers the policy steps needed
to sustain the recovery and rebalance Asia's medium-term
growth.
-
Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere -
Crisis Averted--What's Next?
Date: October 2009
The impact of the global financial crisis and recession
on the Latin America and Caribbean region was
substantial, but the worst is over for most countries.
The region avoided falling into a crisis of its own,
performing relatively well amid strong external shocks.
Many countries have now returned to growth. The region
now faces the challenge of adapting to a new global
environment that will not be as favorable as in the
past. The latest edition of the report explores the
lessons and policy agenda emerging from the recent
performance of the Latin America and Caribbean region,
drawing also on the broader international experience.
Published biannually in May and October.
-
Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and
Central Asia
Date: October 2009
The global economic crisis has taken a toll on the
Middle East and Central Asia region, but appropriate
policy responses have helped mitigate the impact.
Looking ahead, the regionâs oil exporters are expected
to benefit from rising oil prices as the world economy
begins to pull out of an unparalleled post-World War II
recession. Oil importers, however, are likely to
continue to face continued headwinds that may delay an
uptake in growth. Where feasible, countries should
continue to support domestic demand to lessen the impact
of the crisis on the poor while maintaining a focus on
debt sustainability. For the region's low-income
countries, higher donor support will be needed to
maintain economic development. Across the region,
governments should further strengthen financial systems
and be careful not to lose momentum on structural
reforms. Published biannually in May and October.
-
Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa
Date: October 2009
Sub-Saharan Africa has been hit hard by the global
recession, but signs of resilience remain. While South
Africa and some other middle-income countries were
caught in the turbulence of international financial
markets, and oil exporters saw government revenues
plunge, some countries with wider commodity bases have
so far escaped the worst of the crisis. Also, and
reassuringly, with stronger initial fiscal and external
positions than in past downturns, most countries in the
region have been able to partially absorb external
shocks by allowing fiscal deficits to rise and reducing
interest rates. Exchange rates have generally been
allowed to adjust. With many families affected by the
crisis, however, progress toward the Millennium
Development Goals has receded. Looking ahead, fiscal
policy must balance support for the recovery with
enhancing future growth prospects, debt sustainability,
and poverty reduction. Published biannually in May and
October.
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