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REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Asia Recovering Rapidly, but Faces Challenges, says IMF

 



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Global Economics - Viewpoints

The Economic Policy Institute, a nonprofit Washington D.C. think tank, was created in 1986 to broaden the discussion about economic policy to include the interests of low- and middle-income workers. Today, with global competition expanding, wage inequality rising, and the methods and nature of work changing in fundamental ways, it is as crucial as ever that people who work for a living have a voice in the economic discourse. 

Morgan Stanley's Global Economic Forum and Strategy Bulletin: 
 Nov 3 - 12, 2009

>>> Archive

MFS Global Perspectives:  October 2009

Wells Fargo Advisors Market Commentaries For the Week of November 16, 2009:


  • Global Economic Analysis: Real-time coverage of the global economy. Analysis, data, forecasts by Moody's Economy.com. Subscription based.

World Markets - Technical Analysis

Broad market percentages supports bullish outlook

One of the most important charts that all investors should be watching is the level of bullish participation of stocks on the NYSE Composite. This graph illustrates the number of equities that are trading above their long-term 200-day moving average on the broad-based index. Currently that level is a very bullish 87.67%. This moving average is used by numerous money managers worldwide to determine the trading direction of securities.

As many market watchers are now forecasting a retest of the March 2009 levels or lower, investors should take note that a drop of that magnitude is highly unlikely when the "Big Board" has such an impressive number of stocks trending up.
High bullish percentages typically develop in the first year of the new bull market. This is also the time when equities rise well in advance of their fundamentals. Supporting earnings to stock prices often requires another 1-2 years of economic growth to catch-up.

Deep retracements can occur when the percentage of equities above their 200-day m/a falls to 55% or below. Evidence of this action developed in 2002 and again in late 2007 to early 2009.

Bottom line: Investors should monitor the levels of bullish participation on the NYSE Composite. This can provide confirmation of the continuation of a bull market or any future weakness. High percentages (80% to 90%) indicate strong bullish activity. Levels of 55% to 80% are more sustainable for longer-term upward growth. Percentage levels of 55% or below imply downward pressure is building on the index.

Investment approach: Current data suggests the high percentage of NYSE stocks in a bull trend should persist into early 2010. Historical information indicates the percentage should then decline down to 55%-80% by mid-2010.


Donald W. Dony, FCSI, MFTA

 Archive
Economic Analysis & Commentary

THE KWR INTERNATIONAL ADVISOR

 



Reading
  • IMF: Reshaping the Global Economy
    The economic and financial crisis marks the end (for now) of a rapid expansion of globalization (March 2009)
     
  • Economics A-Z: Pareto efficiency? Phillips Curve? Inflation? Deflation? Stagnation?
    Look up economic terms in this handy online resource, provided by The Economist

Global Equities

 


 




 

News & Commentaries

 


Commodities

FTSE 100 · CAC 40 · Dax   ·  MIBTEL  · IBEX 35 Index  · Dow Jones STOXX  > More European Indices

 


  • Asian Development Bank: ADB is an international development finance institution whose mission is to help its developing member countries reduce poverty and improve the quality of life of their people.
  • The China Perspective provides business-related information with daily updates of major trends and developments in the burgeoning Chinese economy, as well as a weekly summary of the most pertinent issues in the foreign press. $$$
  • The JapanInvestor is dedicated to investors in Japanese stocks, bonds and the yen. TJI provides a weekly strategic analysis of Japanese stocks and financial markets, providing you with views you can profitably use to invest in Japan.
  • Asian Business Watch - A comprehensive source for investment and economic information on Asia and Japan.
  • Financial Times: Daily Update
  • CNNfn News: Asian Markets
  • Macquarie Research: This Week in Asia (pdf)
  • StocksAbroad.com - Resources for Investing in Asia and Latin America Stocks
  • ValueNotes.com - A complete directory and search engine for Indian equity research, business, financial and stock market information
  • India: Outlookindia.com and outlookmoney.com
  • Mizuho Securities - Research and Links to English language resources on the Japanese economy, finance, politics and law
  • The Edge is Malaysia's best selling and highly regarded publication on business & investment.
  • Center for Asia Investment Intelligence - Economic and Financial Analysis with focus on Japan and  Korea
  • Australian Stock Exchange data and information: Live Data from the Australian Stock Exchange. ASX data, End of day. Live, Dynamic. Australian economic news. Financial & company news. Charts.
  • Sharetradingeducation: Home of the Investing Online Newsletter & practical risk management and tools. Download FREE TRIAL ISSUE and free sample of Atkinson-Guppy Articles ebook of articles from Daryl Guppy's newsletter, Atkinson portfolio tools & Home Study courses on the work of Jim Berg, Daryl Guppy, Alan Hull and Simon Sherwood.

All Ordinaries  ·  Shanghai Composite   · Hang Seng  ·  BSE 30  ·  Jakarta Composite  · KLSE Composite  · Nikkei 225  · NZSE 50  · Straits Times  · Seoul Composite  · Taiwan Weighted  · Headlines for these Markets


  • North American Stock Indices
  • Latin American Stock Indices
  • InfoMoney focuses on providing financial information about the Brazilian market. News, stock quotes, technical and fundamental analysis and interactive tools. (Portugese)
  • Financial Times: Daily Update U.S. Markets
  • Financial Chat is home to the Internet's most sophisticated and active real-time trading chatrooms. In our forums, we have some of the world's finest traders with us daily, willing to share information in real time, as well as educate and assist you in your trading. Real traders trading US and foreign markets, posting real-time trades, and giving real-time market commentary.
  • StocksAbroad.com - Resources for Investing in Asia and Latin America Stocks

MerVal  Argentina · Bovespa Brazil  · S&P TSX Composite  ·  IPSA Chile ·  IPC Mexico ·  S&P 500 · DJIA  · NASDAQ  · Headlines for these Markets    ·   ·


Emerging Markets

Currencies

 

Major Currency Cross Rates

 JPY to USD  ·  EURO to USD · CAN $ to USD  · U.K. £ to USD   · AU $ to USD  · CHF to USD > Currency Headlines

Economies

NEW: OECD Factbook 2009: The online gateway to OECD Factbook PDFs, Excel™ and interactive graphs. Access to the key indicators for the World’s leading economies is only a click away. To access all the contents free online, click here.

OECD Economic Outlook No. 85, June 2009

  • OECD Documentation: Statistics, Data and Indicators
    Extensive economic statistics, data, and indicators from member and non-member countries.
     
  • Economic Outlook for OECD countries: an interim assessment (pdf, 588Kb, English)
  • IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) -- Crisis and Recovery - April 2009
  • January 2009: IMF World Economic Outlook: Global Economic Slump Challenges Policies
  • IMF Economic Outlooks and  IMF Country Reports by Date
     
  • Commerzbank Research:  Industrial Countries
     
  • Global Business Cycle Indicators - The Conference Board publishes leading, coincident, and lagging indexes designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle for nine countries around the world
     
  • Regional Economic Outlook - Europe: Securing Recovery
    Date: October 2009

    Europe's contraction is ending, but the recovery is fragile. Policymakers should look beyond the crisis to secure a durable upswing and address the threats to potential growth from the crisis and the continent's well-known structural rigidities. The report's analytical work stresses the uncertainty surrounding potential growth estimates, and the more volatile environment faced by emerging economies in a tightly integrated region. In the near term, this calls for measures to restore the financial sector to health and for continued macroeconomic support, while preparing for the exit from extraordinary interventions in a coordinated and transparent fashion. Higher longer-term growth through structural change will support the recovery, smooth the exit, and help emerging markets to adjust to lower capital inflows in the crisis' aftermath. Published biannually in May and October.
     
  • Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific
    Date: May 2009

    The May 2009 Asia and Pacific REO looks at the impact of the global financial crisis on Asia. Chapter 1 argues that a sustained recovery will need to await an improvement in the global economy, given Asian economies' specialization on advanced manufacturing and increasing financial ties with the rest of the world. Indeed, Chapter 2 shows that Asia has typically not recovered until exports have started to revive. An expansionary policy stance would provide insurance against the risks that a delayed global recovery could hurt the corporate and bank sectors, as discussed in Chapter 3. Some useful insights on how to deal with the adverse impact of the crisis may come from Japan's experience during the 1990s, discussed in Chapter 4.

  • Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Crisis Averted--What's Next?
    Date:
    October 2009

    The impact of the global financial crisis and recession on the Latin America and Caribbean region was substantial, but the worst is over for most countries. The region avoided falling into a crisis of its own, performing relatively well amid strong external shocks. Many countries have now returned to growth. The region now faces the challenge of adapting to a new global environment that will not be as favorable as in the past. The latest edition of the report explores the lessons and policy agenda emerging from the recent performance of the Latin America and Caribbean region, drawing also on the broader international experience. Published biannually in May and October.
  • Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia
    Date: October 2009

    The global economic crisis has taken a toll on the Middle East and Central Asia region, but appropriate policy responses have helped mitigate the impact. Looking ahead, the region’s oil exporters are expected to benefit from rising oil prices as the world economy begins to pull out of an unparalleled post-World War II recession. Oil importers, however, are likely to continue to face continued headwinds that may delay an uptake in growth. Where feasible, countries should continue to support domestic demand to lessen the impact of the crisis on the poor while maintaining a focus on debt sustainability. For the region's low-income countries, higher donor support will be needed to maintain economic development. Across the region, governments should further strengthen financial systems and be careful not to lose momentum on structural reforms. Published biannually in May and October.
     
  • Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa
    Date: October 2009

    Sub-Saharan Africa has been hit hard by the global recession, but signs of resilience remain. While South Africa and some other middle-income countries were caught in the turbulence of international financial markets, and oil exporters saw government revenues plunge, some countries with wider commodity bases have so far escaped the worst of the crisis. Also, and reassuringly, with stronger initial fiscal and external positions than in past downturns, most countries in the region have been able to partially absorb external shocks by allowing fiscal deficits to rise and reducing interest rates. Exchange rates have generally been allowed to adjust. With many families affected by the crisis, however, progress toward the Millennium Development Goals has receded. Looking ahead, fiscal policy must balance support for the recovery with enhancing future growth prospects, debt sustainability, and poverty reduction. Published biannually in May and October.
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Statistics
  • International Data Base - Produced by the U.S. Census Bureau, IDB is a data bank containing statistical tables of demographic and socio-economic data for 227 countries and areas of the world
  • Moody's Economy.com FreeLunch.com is a great source of free economic data. Users can quickly and easily chart and download economic data. Moody's Economy.com data services teams in Asia, Europe, and the United States update FreeLunch.com's economic data as is it is released by the primary source.
     
  • InfoNation - From the United Nations, this site allows users to generate customized statistical and comparative tables using current information for all UN member countries
     
  • CIA World Factbook
     
  • WTO  International trade and tariff data


Country Surveys

IMF Country Surveys: Contents of Recent Issues

Country Information: IMF reports and publications arranged by country.

OECD Country Surveys

An Economic Survey is published every 1½-2 years for each OECD country and for some larger countries that are not members of the OECD, such as ChinaRussia and Brazil. It identifies the main economic challenges faced by the country and analyses policy options to meet them. You can find all Surveys catalogued by country.

The publication Going for Growth takes stock of growth performance for each country and identifies ways to improve productivity and employment on the basis of international benchmarking.


OECD Country summaries (31 individual PDF files, including a euro area summary)

Also see Annex Tables: 61 cross-country tables of historical data and projections (XLS)

Click on the country of your choice and all OECD documents pertaining specifically to the country will be listed. Don't miss the the "Economic Surveys" listed under "Country Surveys/Reviews/Guides".

OECD Economic Surveys: An in-depth economic analysis for each Member Country (and some non-member countries)



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