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Europe

Europe Celebrates! 50 Years of EU

Germany

OECD: Germany : Innovation, education and stronger competition key to a more balanced economy

26-Mar-2010

Innovation, education and more competition in the domestic market would help Germany emerge from the economic crisis with a stronger and more balanced economy. Labor market policy should now pave the way for necessary structural changes while fiscal policy needs a specific exit strategy with focus on consolidating public finances over the coming years.

 

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Global Economics - Viewpoints

The Economic Policy Institute, a nonprofit Washington D.C. think tank, was created in 1986 to broaden the discussion about economic policy to include the interests of low- and middle-income workers. Today, with global competition expanding, wage inequality rising, and the methods and nature of work changing in fundamental ways, it is as crucial as ever that people who work for a living have a voice in the economic discourse. 

Morgan Stanley's Global Economic Forum and Strategy Bulletin: 
 July 25-31 2010


Euroland: Contagion, Exposure and the Policy Response
United States: Recalibrating the Rate Outlook
Turkey: Hats Off to Fiscal Performance
Hungary:Sticking with the IMF
United States: Review and Preview
United States: Growth Scare

>>> Archive

MFS Global Perspectives:  June 2010

Wells Fargo Advisors Market Commentaries For the Week of July 25, 2010:


  • Global Economic Analysis: Real-time coverage of the global economy. Analysis, data, forecasts by Moody's Economy.com. Subscription based.

World Markets - Technical Analysis

July 18, 2010: Market support remains low

Sustainable multi-year advances in the stock market requires a background of improving fundamentals plus an expanding economy. On a more simplistic level, a bull market is when the fundamentals create an environment where the majority of stocks are trending up. However, investing conditions periodically build where the majority of stocks in an index are turning down short-term. This is when a deep correction can occur.

 

Chart 1 illustrates the percentage of equities on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). During the last bull market (2002 to 2007) the number of advancing stocks basically remained in a band between 50% and 90%. This high level of rising stocks to declining equities produces a stable steady increase. Since the beginning of the present bull market (March 2009), the percentage of stocks trending up has remained at a comfortable 50% or higher. This is in line with past bull markets and expanding economies.

However, the recent concerns over the European debt crises and the perceived challenges with the US economy, has driven investors into a defensive stance. This position creates a selling environment. Since April, the percentage of stocks advancing has continued to fall. The number was as high as 80% (only 20% were trending down) in the 2nd quarter to it present 39.35%, which means 60.65% are declining. These conditions produces quick downward spikes and greater volatility. Friday's trading session on the NYSE is evidence of this very low market support.

Bottom line: The underlying support for the broad-based NYSE is rapidly falling. The number of stocks on the Big Board that is descending is almost 2 to 1 to the number of equities that are rising. The Volatility Index (Chart 2) highlights the elevated risk. The VIX is trading in the zone that corresponds to market peaks, strong corrections and final lows. As models suggest that the next major trough can be expected in September, the current percentage of stocks that are trending up (39.35%) can be anticipated to decrease even further.

Investment approach: The lack of market support, the elevated Volatility Index coupled with an expected six more weeks before the September low, strongly points to a high probability of a deep correction. Investors may wish to place protective stops on profitable positions, increase cash or move to short-term fixed income securities in their portfolios. On the positive side, models indicate a return to the bull market in Q4 as improving corporate earnings take affect and favorable seasonal conditions unfold.

Donald W. Dony, FCSI, MFTA 

Archive
Economic Analysis & Commentary


Reading
  • IMF: Reshaping the Global Economy
    The economic and financial crisis marks the end (for now) of a rapid expansion of globalization (March 2009)
     
  • Economics A-Z: Pareto efficiency? Phillips Curve? Inflation? Deflation? Stagnation?
    Look up economic terms in this handy online resource, provided by The Economist

Global Equities

 


 




 

News & Commentaries

 


Commodities

FTSE 100 · CAC 40 · Dax   ·  MIBTEL  · IBEX 35 Index  · Dow Jones STOXX  > More European Indices

 


  • Asian Development Bank: ADB is an international development finance institution whose mission is to help its developing member countries reduce poverty and improve the quality of life of their people.
  • The China Perspective provides business-related information with daily updates of major trends and developments in the burgeoning Chinese economy, as well as a weekly summary of the most pertinent issues in the foreign press. $$$
  • The JapanInvestor is dedicated to investors in Japanese stocks, bonds and the yen. TJI provides a weekly strategic analysis of Japanese stocks and financial markets, providing you with views you can profitably use to invest in Japan.
  • Asian Business Watch - A comprehensive source for investment and economic information on Asia and Japan.
  • Financial Times: Daily Update
  • CNNfn News: Asian Markets
  • Macquarie Research: This Week in Asia (pdf)
  • StocksAbroad.com - Resources for Investing in Asia and Latin America Stocks
  • ValueNotes.com - A complete directory and search engine for Indian equity research, business, financial and stock market information
  • India: Outlookindia.com and outlookmoney.com
  • Mizuho Securities - Research and Links to English language resources on the Japanese economy, finance, politics and law
  • The Edge is Malaysia's best selling and highly regarded publication on business & investment.
  • Center for Asia Investment Intelligence - Economic and Financial Analysis with focus on Japan and  Korea
  • Australian Stock Exchange data and information: Live Data from the Australian Stock Exchange. ASX data, End of day. Live, Dynamic. Australian economic news. Financial & company news. Charts.
  • Sharetradingeducation: Home of the Investing Online Newsletter & practical risk management and tools. Download FREE TRIAL ISSUE and free sample of Atkinson-Guppy Articles ebook of articles from Daryl Guppy's newsletter, Atkinson portfolio tools & Home Study courses on the work of Jim Berg, Daryl Guppy, Alan Hull and Simon Sherwood.

All Ordinaries  ·  Shanghai Composite   · Hang Seng  ·  BSE 30  ·  Jakarta Composite  · KLSE Composite  · Nikkei 225  · NZSE 50  · Straits Times  · Seoul Composite  · Taiwan Weighted  · Headlines for these Markets


  • North American Stock Indices
  • Latin American Stock Indices
  • InfoMoney focuses on providing financial information about the Brazilian market. News, stock quotes, technical and fundamental analysis and interactive tools. (Portugese)
  • Financial Times: Daily Update U.S. Markets
  • Financial Chat is home to the Internet's most sophisticated and active real-time trading chatrooms. In our forums, we have some of the world's finest traders with us daily, willing to share information in real time, as well as educate and assist you in your trading. Real traders trading US and foreign markets, posting real-time trades, and giving real-time market commentary.
  • StocksAbroad.com - Resources for Investing in Asia and Latin America Stocks

MerVal  Argentina · Bovespa Brazil  · S&P TSX Composite  ·  IPSA Chile ·  IPC Mexico ·  S&P 500 · DJIA  · NASDAQ  · Headlines for these Markets    ·   ·


Emerging Markets

Currencies

 

Major Currency Cross Rates

 JPY to USD  ·  EURO to USD · CAN $ to USD  · U.K. £ to USD   · AU $ to USD  · CHF to USD > Currency Headlines

Economies

OECD Factbook 2009: The online gateway to OECD Factbook PDFs, Excel™ and interactive graphs. Access to the key indicators for the World’s leading economies is only a click away. To access all the contents free online, click here.

 

OECD Economic Outlook No. 85, June 2009

  • OECD Documentation: Statistics, Data and Indicators
    Extensive economic statistics, data, and indicators from member and non-member countries.
     
  • Economic Outlook for OECD countries: an interim assessment (pdf, 588Kb, English)
  • IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) -- Crisis and Recovery - April 2009
  • January 2009: IMF World Economic Outlook: Global Economic Slump Challenges Policies
  • IMF Economic Outlooks and  IMF Country Reports by Date
     
  • Commerzbank Research:  Industrial Countries/a>
     
  • Global Business Cycle Indicators - The Conference Board publishes leading, coincident, and lagging indexes designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle for nine countries around the world
     
  • Regional Economic Outlook - Europe: Securing Recovery
    Date: October 2009

    Europe's contraction is ending, but the recovery is fragile. Policymakers should look beyond the crisis to secure a durable upswing and address the threats to potential growth from the crisis and the continent's well-known structural rigidities. The report's analytical work stresses the uncertainty surrounding potential growth estimates, and the more volatile environment faced by emerging economies in a tightly integrated region. In the near term, this calls for measures to restore the financial sector to health and for continued macroeconomic support, while preparing for the exit from extraordinary interventions in a coordinated and transparent fashion. Higher longer-term growth through structural change will support the recovery, smooth the exit, and help emerging markets to adjust to lower capital inflows in the crisis' aftermath. Published biannually in May and October.
     
  • Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific
    Date: October 2009

    Asia has rebounded fast from the depth of the global crisis. Initially, the region was hit extremely hard, with output in most countries shrinking by much more than even those nations at the epicenter of the crisis. But starting in February 2009, Asia's economy began to revive. Exports and industrial production have increased again, financial pressures have eased, confidence has largely been restored. What explains this remarkable comeback? What challenges does the recovery pose to Asian policymakers? These are the main questions addressed in the IMF's October 2009 "Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific." The report discusses the latest developments in Asia, examines the prospects for the period ahead, and considers the policy steps needed to sustain the recovery and rebalance Asia's medium-term growth.

  • Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Crisis Averted--What's Next?
    Date:
    October 2009

    The impact of the global financial crisis and recession on the Latin America and Caribbean region was substantial, but the worst is over for most countries. The region avoided falling into a crisis of its own, performing relatively well amid strong external shocks. Many countries have now returned to growth. The region now faces the challenge of adapting to a new global environment that will not be as favorable as in the past. The latest edition of the report explores the lessons and policy agenda emerging from the recent performance of the Latin America and Caribbean region, drawing also on the broader international experience. Published biannually in May and October.
  • Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia
    Date: October 2009

    The gThe global economic crisis has taken a toll on the Middle East and Central Asia region, but appropriate policy responses have helped mitigate the impact. Looking ahead, the region’s oil exporters are expected to benefit from rising oil prices as the world economy begins to pull out of an unparalleled post-World War II recession. Oil importers, however, are likely to continue to face continued headwinds that may delay an uptake in growth. Where feasible, countries should continue to support domestic demand to lessen the impact of the crisis on the poor while maintaining a focus on debt sustainability. For the region's low-income countries, higher donor support will be needed to maintain economic development. Across the region, governments should further strengthen financial systems and be careful not to lose momentum on structural reforms. Published biannually in May and October.
     
  • Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africaong>
    Date: October 2009

    Sub-SSub-Saharan Africa has been hit hard by the global recession, but signs of resilience remain. While South Africa and some other middle-income countries were caught in the turbulence of international financial markets, and oil exporters saw government revenues plunge, some countries with wider commodity bases have so far escaped the worst of the crisis. Also, and reassuringly, with stronger initial fiscal and external positions than in past downturns, most countries in the region have been able to partially absorb external shocks by allowing fiscal deficits to rise and reducing interest rates. Exchange rates have generally been allowed to adjust. With many families affected by the crisis, however, progress toward the Millennium Development Goals has receded. Looking ahead, fiscal policy must balance support for the recovery with enhancing future growth prospects, debt sustainability, and poverty reduction. Published biannually in May and October.
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Statistics
  • International Data Base - Produced by the U.S. Census Bureau, IDB is a data bank containing statistical tables of demographic and socio-economic data for 227 countries and areas of the world
  • Moody's Economy.com FreeLunch.com is a is a great source of free economic data. Users can quickly and easily chart and download economic data. Moody's Economy.com data services teams in Asia, Europe, and the United States update FreeLunch.com's economic data as is it is released by the primary source.
     
  • InfoNation - From the United Nations, this site allows users to generate customized statistical and comparative tables using current information for all UN member countries
     
  • CIA World Factbook
     
  • WTO bsp;International trade and tariff data


Country Surveys

IMF Country Surveys: Contents of Recent Issues

Country Information: IMF reports and publications arranged by country.

OECD Country Surveys

An Economic Survey is published every 1½-2 years for each OECD country and for some larger countries that are not members of the OECD, such as ChinaRussia and Brazil. It identifies the main economic challenges faced by the country and analyses policy options to meet them. You can find all Surveys catalogued by country.

The publication Going for Growth takes stock of growth performance for each country and identifies ways to improve productivity and employment on the basis of international benchmarking.


OECD Country summaries (31 individual PDF files, including a euro area summary)

Also see Annex Tables: 61 cross-country tables of historical data and projections (XLS)

Click on the country of your choice and all OECD documents pertaining specifically to the country will be listed. Don't miss the the "Economic Surveys" listed under "Country Surveys/Reviews/Guides".

OECD Economic Surveys: An in-depth economic analysis for each Member Country (and some non-member countries)



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