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Economic Survey of the United States 2005:
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OECD Statistical Profile of the United States of America
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United States and the IMF
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Major U.S. Indices
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Economic Survey of the United States
29-May-2007 - The US economy continues to grow solidly,
though at a slower pace than before. Long term
challenges include labour force growth, fiscal
sustainability, distortions in the housing market,
performance of secondary schools and access to college.
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Morgan Stanley's Global Economic Forum and Strategy Bulletin: May
13, 2008
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World Markets - Technical
Analysis |
The falling dollar is no friend to
the U.S. financials
 The
affects of the declining U.S. currency goes beyond
simply providing inflationary pressures, stronger
foreign currencies and high gold prices, it also has a
direct impact on how portfolios should be weighted.
Since the beginning of the waterfall drop of the world's
reserve currency, funds have rotated into energy stocks
and out of financials. And this action is never
favourable for the S&P 500.
The connection to the plunging U.S. dollar and the
performance of U.S. financials can be seen in chart 1.
The dotted line is the price of the U.S. Dollar Index
since 1999. The red line is a ratio of the Financial
sector ETF (XLF) and the Energy sector ETF )XLE). The
chart illustrates that as the dollar rose in the 1990s,
U.S. financials had better performance then the energy
sector. however, when the greenback started to drop, the
flow of funds began to shift and favour the energy
sector. Approximately 18 months after the peak in the
currency (January 2002), the energy sector was out
performing financials. This relationship occurred again
in 2005 and 2006. During the brief U.S. dollar bounce in
2005, financials, once again, took control over the
energy sector as funds rotated back toward the U.S.
banks and insurance companies. The lag time was about 12
months. As the dollar resumed its long-term downward
path in early 2006, the energy sector, once again,
trumped the financials by the 1st quarter of 2007.
Bottom line: The falling U.S. dollar creates an
inflationary environment which is beneficial to
commodity-driven sectors and normally a hindrance to
paper-based industries such as financials. The large cap
U.S. industrials and technology sectors typically
follows a similar path as to the financials.
Investment approach: Portfolios should be weighted
toward commodity-driven sectors and indexes over
financials as long as the U.S. dollar continues to
slide. Portfolio holdings in the S&P 500 should remain
underweighted to natural resource-based indexes such as
Brazil, Mexico and Canada.
Extensive U.S. policy changes are needed before the
greenback can be expected to reverse its downward
course. Higher interest rates, massive reduction in the
debt and an increase in taxes will provide an upward
stimulus to the currency but prove politically
unpopular. The dollar can therefore be expected to fall
for the foreseeable future.
More research is available in the May newsletter. Go to
www.technicalspeculator.com and click on member login.
Follow the links to the latest research report.
Your comments are always welcomed.
Donald W. Dony FCSI, MFTA
Archive
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|
Economic Analysis & Commentary |
-
from 19-Mar-2008 to 27-Mar-2008
What needs to be done and who should
pay to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and tackle
climate change? Read the questions and answers from
the online debate on this issue that took place
on Thursday 27 March 2008.
-
on 17-Mar-2008
What reforms are needed to boost jobs and
productivity in Europe and how can they be implemented?
Presentations tackling these and other questions
discussed at a joint OECD-IMF conference on 17 March
2008 are now available. They include keynote speeches by
OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría and IMF Managing
Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn.
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The Bureau of
Economic Analysis provides time-series data on a
variety of US macroeconomic variables.
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Dismal Scientist:
Economic indicators, forecasts, analysis, and data for
the world in real-time. $
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BMO Nesbitt-Burns International Economic Analysis
and Research
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United Nations Economic
Commission for Europe
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The
Ecomomist.com - Economy, Politics and Finance from
around the world
THE KWR INTERNATIONAL ADVISOR
October 2007 Volume 8 Edition 4
Articles
KWR Book Reviews
Media Highlights
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| Reading |
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IMF:
Finance & Development
The March 2007 issue of the IMF's quarterly magazine
features "The Two Faces of Financial Globalization"
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Economics A-Z: Pareto efficiency? Phillips
Curve? Inflation? Deflation? Stagnation?
Look up
economic terms in this handy online resource, provided
by The Economist
|
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| Economies |
-
OECD Economic Outlook No. 82,
December 2007:
Housing weakness to drag down US growth but will not trigger recession, says
Economic Outlook
Twice a year, the OECD Economic
Outlook analyses the major trends and examines the
economic policies required to foster high and
sustainable growth in member countries. This issue
covers the outlook to end-2008. In addition to the
themes featured regularly this issue contains two
special chapters on globalisation and fiscal
consolidation. Forthcoming developments in major
non-OECD economies are also evaluated in detail. Each
edition of this Outlook provides a unique tool
to keep abreast of world economic developments.
-
OECD Documentation: Statistics, Data and Indicators
Extensive economic statistics, data, and indicators from
member and non-member countries.
-
Economic Outlook for OECD countries: an interim
assessment (pdf, 588Kb,
English)
-
IMF World Economic Outlook
IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) -- Globalization and Inequality, October 2007
World economic growth is expected to slow to 4¾ percent next year, with recent
turbulence in financial markets clouding prospects and the U.S. economy remaining weak,
the IMF says in its latest forecast. January 2008 Update: An update of the key WEO projections
-
January 2008:
World Economic Outlook
IMF Sees World Growth Slowing, With U.S. Marked Down
-
IMF Economic Outlooks and IMF
Country Reports by Date
- Commerzbank Research:
Industrial Countries
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Global Business Cycle Indicators
- The Conference Board publishes leading,
coincident, and lagging indexes designed to signal peaks
and troughs in the business cycle for nine countries
around the world
-
Regional Economic Outlook: Europe Date:
April 2008
Europe is facing slower growth as a result of protracted
financial turbulence and spillovers from the U.S.
Meanwhile, inflation has risen sharply. Policymakers in
advanced economies will have to continue to support
financial markets and balance risks to real activity
with the need to anchor inflation. Emerging Europe is
well placed to continue to grow, albeit at a slower
pace, amid concerns about overheating and external
imbalances in several countries. Sound macroeconomic
policies and structural reforms will be necessary to
ensure a soft landing in these countries and smooth
convergence throughout the region.
русский
-
Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific
Date: April 2008
2008 is shaping up as a challenging year for Asia. Activity in most economies remains fairly buoyant, but growth in the United States and, to a lesser extent, Europe is slowing sharply. Given its extensive trade and financial linkages with the rest of the world, Asia is unlikely to delink. At the same time, inflation pressures are picking up across much of the region. Moreover, the still-unfolding global financial crisis adds a dimension of uncertainty to the picture, and the balance of risks remains on the downside. However, most countries in the region are well-placed to undertake counter-cyclical policies should these prove necessary.
-
Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere
Date: April 2008
The main focus of this report is the outlook for the
region in the face of the downturn now projected for the
U.S. economy and the continuing risks that affect the
global outlook. Overall the region is better placed than
in the past to navigate the current financial
turbulence, given reduced vulnerabilities and stronger
policy frameworks. Nonetheless, the report points to
risks that the global financial stress could curtail
capital flows to the region and world commodity prices
could fall more than expected. There are also risks
arising from rising inflation and rapid private credit
growth in a number of countries. The report then
explores the policy options facing governments in the
region, underscoring the need to preserve the gains of
recent years.
Español
- Sub-Saharan
Africa region Date:April 2008
The region's prospects continue to be
promising, but global developments pose
increased risks to the outlook. Growth in
sub-Saharan Africa should again average about 6
1/2 percent in 2008 with oil exporters leading
the way; meanwhile, growth in oil importers is
expected to taper off, though only modestly.
With food and energy prices still rising,
inflation is projected to average about 8 1/2
percent this year for countries in the region,
setting aside Zimbabwe. Risks in 2008 are tilted
to the downside, but the region is better placed
today to withstand a worsening of the global
environment.
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CIA World Factbook
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International trade statistics 2007 - This report
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statistics on trade in merchandise and commercial
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