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The Economic
Policy Institute, a nonprofit Washington D.C. think tank,
was created in 1986 to broaden the discussion about economic
policy to include the interests of low- and middle-income
workers. Today, with global competition expanding, wage
inequality rising, and the methods and nature of work changing
in fundamental ways, it is as crucial as ever that people who
work for a living have a voice in the economic discourse.
Morgan Stanley's Global Economic Forum and Strategy
Bulletin:
July 25-31 2010
Euroland:
Contagion, Exposure and the Policy Response
United States:
Recalibrating the Rate Outlook
Turkey:
Hats Off to Fiscal Performance
Hungary:Sticking
with the IMF
United States:
Review and Preview
United States:
Growth Scare
>>>
Archive
MFS Global Perspectives:
June 2010
Wells Fargo
Advisors Market Commentaries
For the Week of July 25, 2010:
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World Markets - Technical
Analysis |
July 18, 2010: Market support remains low
Sustainable
multi-year advances in the stock market requires a
background of improving fundamentals plus an expanding
economy. On a more simplistic level, a bull market is
when the fundamentals create an environment where the
majority of stocks are trending up. However, investing
conditions periodically build where the majority of
stocks in an index are turning down short-term. This is
when a deep correction can occur.
Chart 1 illustrates the percentage of equities on the New York Stock
Exchange (NYSE). During the last bull market (2002 to
2007) the number of advancing stocks basically remained
in a band between 50% and 90%. This high level of rising
stocks to declining equities produces a stable steady
increase. Since the beginning of the present bull market
(March 2009), the percentage of stocks trending up has
remained at a comfortable 50% or higher. This is in line
with past bull markets and expanding economies.
However, the recent concerns over the European debt
crises and the perceived challenges with the US economy,
has driven investors into a defensive stance. This
position creates a selling environment. Since April, the
percentage of stocks advancing has continued to fall.
The number was as high as 80% (only 20% were trending
down) in the 2nd quarter to it present 39.35%, which
means 60.65% are declining. These conditions produces
quick downward spikes and greater volatility. Friday's
trading session on the NYSE is evidence of this very low
market support.
Bottom
line: The underlying support for the broad-based NYSE is
rapidly falling. The number of stocks on the Big Board
that is descending is almost 2 to 1 to the number of
equities that are rising. The Volatility Index (Chart 2)
highlights the elevated risk. The VIX is trading in the
zone that corresponds to market peaks, strong
corrections and final lows. As models suggest that the
next major trough can be expected in September, the
current percentage of stocks that are trending up
(39.35%) can be anticipated to decrease even further.
Investment approach: The lack of market support, the
elevated Volatility Index coupled with an expected six
more weeks before the September low, strongly points to
a high probability of a deep correction. Investors may
wish to place protective stops on profitable positions,
increase cash or move to short-term fixed income
securities in their portfolios. On the positive side,
models indicate a return to the bull market in Q4 as
improving corporate earnings take affect and favorable
seasonal conditions unfold.
Donald W. Dony, FCSI, MFTA
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IMF:
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The economic and financial crisis marks the end (for
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Economics A-Z: Pareto efficiency? Phillips
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OECD Factbook 2009:
The online gateway to OECD Factbook PDFs,
Excel™ and interactive graphs. Access to the key
indicators for the World’s leading economies is only a
click away. To access all the contents free online,
click
here.
OECD Economic Outlook No. 85, June 2009
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Flashfile: summary of projections by country
(XLS)
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OECD Documentation: Statistics, Data and Indicators
Extensive economic statistics, data, and indicators from
member and non-member countries.
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Economic Outlook for OECD countries: an interim
assessment (pdf, 588Kb,
English)
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IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) --
Crisis and Recovery - April 2009
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January 2009: IMF World Economic Outlook:
Global Economic Slump Challenges Policies
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IMF Economic Outlooks and IMF
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Global Business Cycle Indicators
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and troughs in the business cycle for nine countries
around the world
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Regional Economic Outlook - Europe: Securing
Recovery
Date: October 2009
Europe's contraction is ending, but the recovery is
fragile. Policymakers should look beyond the crisis to
secure a durable upswing and address the threats to
potential growth from the crisis and the continent's
well-known structural rigidities. The report's
analytical work stresses the uncertainty surrounding
potential growth estimates, and the more volatile
environment faced by emerging economies in a tightly
integrated region. In the near term, this calls for
measures to restore the financial sector to health and
for continued macroeconomic support, while preparing for
the exit from extraordinary interventions in a
coordinated and transparent fashion. Higher longer-term
growth through structural change will support the
recovery, smooth the exit, and help emerging markets to
adjust to lower capital inflows in the crisis'
aftermath. Published biannually in May and October.
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Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific
Date: October 2009
Asia has rebounded fast from the depth of the global
crisis. Initially, the region was hit extremely hard,
with output in most countries shrinking by much more
than even those nations at the epicenter of the crisis.
But starting in February 2009, Asia's economy began to
revive. Exports and industrial production have increased
again, financial pressures have eased, confidence has
largely been restored. What explains this remarkable
comeback? What challenges does the recovery pose to
Asian policymakers? These are the main questions
addressed in the IMF's October 2009 "Regional Economic
Outlook: Asia and Pacific." The report discusses the
latest developments in Asia, examines the prospects for
the period ahead, and considers the policy steps needed
to sustain the recovery and rebalance Asia's medium-term
growth.
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Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere -
Crisis Averted--What's Next?
Date: October 2009
The impact of the global financial crisis and recession
on the Latin America and Caribbean region was
substantial, but the worst is over for most countries.
The region avoided falling into a crisis of its own,
performing relatively well amid strong external shocks.
Many countries have now returned to growth. The region
now faces the challenge of adapting to a new global
environment that will not be as favorable as in the
past. The latest edition of the report explores the
lessons and policy agenda emerging from the recent
performance of the Latin America and Caribbean region,
drawing also on the broader international experience.
Published biannually in May and October.
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Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and
Central Asia
Date: October 2009
The gThe global economic crisis has taken a toll on the
Middle East and Central Asia region, but appropriate
policy responses have helped mitigate the impact.
Looking ahead, the regionâs oil exporters are expected
to benefit from rising oil prices as the world economy
begins to pull out of an unparalleled post-World War II
recession. Oil importers, however, are likely to
continue to face continued headwinds that may delay an
uptake in growth. Where feasible, countries should
continue to support domestic demand to lessen the impact
of the crisis on the poor while maintaining a focus on
debt sustainability. For the region's low-income
countries, higher donor support will be needed to
maintain economic development. Across the region,
governments should further strengthen financial systems
and be careful not to lose momentum on structural
reforms. Published biannually in May and October.
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Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africaong>
Date: October 2009
Sub-SSub-Saharan Africa has been hit hard by the global
recession, but signs of resilience remain. While South
Africa and some other middle-income countries were
caught in the turbulence of international financial
markets, and oil exporters saw government revenues
plunge, some countries with wider commodity bases have
so far escaped the worst of the crisis. Also, and
reassuringly, with stronger initial fiscal and external
positions than in past downturns, most countries in the
region have been able to partially absorb external
shocks by allowing fiscal deficits to rise and reducing
interest rates. Exchange rates have generally been
allowed to adjust. With many families affected by the
crisis, however, progress toward the Millennium
Development Goals has receded. Looking ahead, fiscal
policy must balance support for the recovery with
enhancing future growth prospects, debt sustainability,
and poverty reduction. Published biannually in May and
October.
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